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April 11, 2005

COMMON THREADS: Democracy Blowback?

The potential for blowback from the Bush Administration’s new democracy initiatives are surfacing as the Middle and Near East enters a critical historic juncture. On the one hand, the Iraqi parliament’s selection of a Kurd as President and a Shi’ite Muslim leader as Prime Minister can only create relief, mixed with discomfort, among those who opposed the invasion of Iraq. The war may have been brutal, ill-thought out, launched on misleading grounds, and conducted under newly heightened levels of information control, but it is hard to argue with the creation of something resembling representative government for the first time in the country’s history. The elevation into power of two groups long repressed by the Hussein regime and which together represent the overwhelming majority of Iraq’s population is a truly historic event.

But before the United States rests too long on this comforting development, cues from a more democratic Iraq and elsewhere in the region suggest potential trouble ahead, as reported on this site. Democracy can deliver surprises. A government dominated by Shi’ites, closely allied with Iran—one of the Bush Administration’s topmost ‘rogue nations—and Kurds, fierce enemies of America’s close ally Turkey—may yet have many opportunities to turn against American interests. “Are we (Americans and Europeans) ready to accept the results of democratic elections if they imply the victory of Islamists?” asks Najla Bembarek, reporting on a statement by the French Foreign Minister, Hubert Vedrine to Le Monde. Clues that a divide between the American desire for democracy and the democratically expressed desire of the region’s new democrats are beginning to emerge not only in Iraq.

As Lubna Takruri points out the Israeli newspaper Ha’aretz last week admonished the United States to steer clear of overly aggressive lobbying for democracy in Arab countries for fear of derailing the efforts through too close an association with U.S. interests. “While the Bush administration's rhetoric has hoped to equate democracy with the American way in the minds of the world, many Arab countries are leaning toward democracy on their own, as long as it doesn't mean pro-Americanism,” Takruri writes.
She quotes Ha’aretz: “To attain public legitimacy, it appears that each of these movements needs an anti-American slogan in addition to the pro-democracy slogan.”

While President Bush pushes for elections in Lebanon independent of the Syrians —which indeed would be a welcome development—cautionary notes about the U.S. democracy offensive are registering as far afield as Australia--about as distant from the roiling tensions of the Mid East as you can get. Federico Rampini reports that a majority of Australian citizens register U.S. foreign policy as a bigger threat to world peace than Islamic fundamentalism.

Ironically, it may be the Middle East, now considered a showcase for the democracy offensive of the Bush Administration, that could end up being the place where the inspirational ideas of democracy are ultimately decoupled from their historic source, the United States.

Posted April 11, 2005 06:01 PM

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