WASHINGTON, Feb. 17, 2005—CSIS analysts made the following statements today regarding President Bush’s upcoming trip to Europe:

Simon Serfaty, CSIS Brzezinski Chair in Global Security and Geostrategy (202-775-3110, sserfaty@csis.org): “By going to Europe earlier than any other newly elected U.S. president, George W. Bush is making a statement that he is ready to renew his dialogue with Europe, including those who did not join and even opposed the coalition of the willing in Europe. The trip has been designed to engage the Europeans, not one national capital at a time, but all of them simultaneously, with the EU as a main interlocutor, together with NATO. The goal is not to resolve all our differences, which remain as substantial as they were throughout the past year, but to reassert a shared will to overcome these differences. For the allies not to respond to this opening, and for both sides of the Atlantic not to engage in a dialogue that would permit a better coordination of our actions and policies when dealing with the daunting and urgent agenda that awaits us, would be tragic. Secretary Rice is right -- this is a defining moment comparable, in terms of its urgency and significance, to that which followed the re-election of Harry Truman in November 1948.”

Robin Niblett, CSIS executive vice president and director, CSIS Europe Program (202-775-3226, rniblett@csis.org): “President Bush’s trip to Europe offers the opportunity to start off transatlantic relations during his second term on the right tone and track. The real test, however, will come in the months after the President returns to the White House, when a likely EU decision to lift its arms embargo on China and a possible breakdown in the EU negotiations with Iran could again set transatlantic relations on edge, despite the positive opportunities now emerging in the Arab-Israeli peace process and elsewhere. The importance of the President’s and Secretary Rice’s visits, therefore, is to help build the personal relationships that will be needed to manage the continuing substantive differences in U.S. and European approaches to their common challenges.”
[CSIS EuroFocus on lifting the EU arms embargo on China: http://www.csis.org/europe/eurofocus/v10n3.pdf
CSIS EuroFocus on Europe as a Distracted Partner: http://www.csis.org/europe/eurofocus/v11n1.pdf ]

Janusz Bugajski, director, CSIS East Europe Project, (202-775-3262, jbugajsk@csis.org): “President Bush has a unique opportunity during his European trip to help rebuild and refocus the Alliance on the challenges and threats facing both sides of the Atlantic. During the summit with President Putin in Slovakia, he can also underscore America’s commitment to promoting democracy in all parts of the globe, including Russia. Slovakia provides a perfect venue both to express Washington's solidarity with its new European allies in Central-Eastern Europe, including Ukraine, and to indicate that democracy as the basis of stability and security should have no eastern borders.”

Julianne Smith, deputy director, CSIS International Security Program (202-775-3121, jsmith@csis.org): “As President Bush, the last of the ‘charm offensive’ troika, prepares to travel to Europe, expectations should be kept in check. The trip itself is an important symbolic gesture but it will not succeed in eliminating the deep strategic differences that continue to divide European and American policymakers. Chancellor Schroeder was right to call for a new transatlantic forum to debate those differences but ironically, his delivery--or lack thereof--was off key. By failing to consult with Washington and other European capitals in advance, Schroeder's overhaul proposal fell flat and was interpreted as an attack against NATO. During Bush’s visit, Germany will concentrate on the positive, but between the photo-ops both sides of the Atlantic should identify ways to convert style to substance. The true test of the visit lies in Europe and America’s ability to develop common policies after the President returns home.”