The French governement is facing a strange blackmail by a group calle "AZF". It threatens with putting bombs under railways in the coiming weeks, and wants some money in exchange for not doint it.
Stratfor gives a thorough account of the issue, and notes that it is not done in the style of traditional Islamist terrorists. AZF describes itself as "a pressure group with a terrorist character created in a secular brotherhood."
Stratfor.com - France and the AZF Threat: More Questions Than Answers
France and the AZF Threat: More Questions Than Answers
Summary
Very little is known about a group calling itself AZF that has threatened to detonate bombs along French railways. Although the case smacks of a classic extortion bid, several curious aspects belie an easy explanation. What is known is that Paris bungled an attempt to pay the ransom, and with the story now public it will be more difficult to pay away the problem -- meaning the risk of actual explosions along French railways in coming weeks could be substantial. The political dangers to French conservatives also are quite real.
Analysis
A previously unknown group calling itself AZF has threatened to detonate 10 bombs at various dates over the next several weeks unless the government coughs up a ransom of $4 million, plus an additional 1 million euros, the French government confirmed March 3. Eight of the bombs are said to be planted along French railways with two others placed in areas where security is low.
Paris admitted to the plot following a March 3 report in the Toulouse daily La Depeche du Midi that broke a self-imposed national news blackout on the case requested by the French government. One source told Stratfor that French media had been barraged with at least 100 faxes from the group, but that the French government had mounted an unprecedented effort to keep a lid on the story while it negotiated with AZF. The lid is now off, and negotiations apparently have stopped.
There are more questions than answers about just who AZF is and what they want -- besides cash (and that could be all they want).
Early speculation was that Islamist radicals or Chechen rebels might be behind the campaign. France has been on high alert for months over concerns that Islamist cells and Chechen rebels might attack France using sophisticated bombs or ricin.
Stratfor sources close to French intelligence, however, say Islamist extremists have been ruled out as suspects, and they are skeptical about the possibility that Chechen rebels could be behind the plot. The method of operation fits neither group.
Chechens and Islamists tend to lean toward using suicide or car bombings, rather than timed explosives. And neither group is known for warning of attacks in advance or communicating directly with targets. Also, neither group undertakes operations for fund- raising purposes (extortion); they have other more sophisticated and less risky funding methods and sources.
In contrast, various facts in the case make it seem much more like a classic extortion bid. It fits the general pattern -- warn the target, demonstrate capability and then set up for a payment.
One source, who has been working on the case and rejected the Islamist option, says the operational mode makes it look like some form of extortion, possibly by an organized crime group or radical leftists on a fund-raising campaign. Yet there are several curious aspects to the case that complicate such an explanation.
One is the mixing of standard extortion techniques with the claim that the group has some sort of political axe to grind. In one letter to the government, AZF described itself as "a pressure group with a terrorist character created in a secular brotherhood." Just what they are pressuring for has not been made clear, and the description could be a cover.
Another curiosity relates to the relative sophistication that the group has demonstrated. A tip in one of AZF's communications led French police Feb. 21 (via global positioning satellite
coordinates) to a time bomb buried under the tracks near Limoges in central France. The bomb was meant to demonstrate the group's determination and capability --and apparently did. The bomb was equipped with what has been described as a "sophisticated"
detonator that was not primed to explode. A source close to the investigation notes that the Limoges bomb would have been impossible to find with either explosives-trained dogs or a metal detector due to a protective wrapping designed to make it undetectable.
The French Interior Ministry later described the explosive as "complex, efficient and in working order." Under a controlled explosion, the bomb broke a rail, meaning detonations -- if done at the right time or left undiscovered -- could derail a train.
The government considers the threat to be very serious, and all police and counterterrorism forces are on special alert.
The bomb's alleged sophistication, the use of GPS coordinates and the ability of the group to hold Paris in its grip for several weeks demonstrate that those behind AZF are not amateurs. A source involved in the investigation agrees with the assessment that whoever AZF is, they are organized and their plans are well thought out. However, compared to the level of sophistication and the extent of the plot, the ransom -- a little more than $5 million -- is paltry, especially for something like an organized crime syndicate. Insurgents in Latin America have been known to get that much in exchange for a single corporate executive.
The name itself is a curiosity. AZF is the name of a chemical plant owned by French oil major Total that exploded in Toulouse in September 2001. Thirty people died in the blast, which investigators concluded was accidental. Current investigators have not yet made any direct connection between that blast and the current threat, but there were rumors at the time of the Toulouse blast that a ransom might have been involved, adding another layer of mystery to the case.
The French investigation is divided into two parts, a source says. One group, mainly top police officers, is investigating the organized crime angle, while another (counterterrorism and
intelligence) is focusing on other options. Among those options
are: people on the government's "black list," i.e., people angry at the government and/or seeking revenge (this could be personal); leftists, anarchists or anti-globalization militants (although they could lack experience with detonators); hostile religious sects or groups; militants (although mainstream terrorist groups like Islamists, Corsicans, Basques or far-right militants are considered unlikely by the authorities).
Missed Drops and Complications
Although little is known about AZF, press reports have made one thing clear: Paris bungled an attempt to pay the ransom, and with the story now public it will be more difficult for the government to pay away the problem.
AZF first surfaced in December with a letter to French President Jacques Chirac in which it criticized the government, the media and the French school system, and threatened unspecified attacks.
The group sent several follow-on letters to Chirac and the Interior Ministry over the next two months, including the letter that led authorities to the Limoges bomb. There has been at least one communication by telephone, with a woman speaking for AZF, while someone else was heard near her while she was calling, a source indicates.
Le Monde reported March 5 that French officials have been in touch with the organization through coded newspaper advertisements. The latest of these was published March 3 in the left-wing daily Liberation and read: "My big teddy bear: Didn't see your blue scarf. Get in touch. Suzy." The teddy bear is AZF, and Suzy is the French authorities. According to Le Monde, this is a contraction of the name of Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy, meant to needle the tough-on-crime official. The message refers to a missed attempt to pay the demanded ransom.
Le Monde reported March 3 that the government twice attempted a "drop" of the ransom, first atop the Montparnasse Tower in Paris and -- after AZF changed its mind -- in a wooded area near Montargis in central France. A police helicopter dispatched March
1 to make the payment could not find the drop spot, marked by a blue tarp, in the darkness.
Two days later, the story broke and things have become much more complicated for the government. Paying the ransom will be more difficult, if not impossible, especially with front-page headlines such as "Who's blackmailing the state?" (Le Figaro) or "Blackmail on the tracks" (Liberation).
Tough-talking Sarkozy, Chirac and Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin will have a difficult time "negotiating with terrorists," especially after running in the most recent elections on a platform of being tough on crime. An inability to deal with the situation decisively could create real problems for the conservatives as they face important regional elections March
21 and 28 -- just about the time various bombs could be going off underneath French trains.
This does not leave Paris with many options. AZF reportedly warned that it would sever contact with the government for 15 days and start exploding bombs if the story went public. If the group stands by that threat -- and if it really has planted 10 other bombs and is ready to use them -- the threat to the French rail system could be substantial over the coming weeks. A source tells Stratfor that AZF claims there are eight bombs planted in a 200-kilometer-wide (124-mile) circle around Paris. France lies at the center of the European rail network, which is a vital piece of European commerce and the primary means of travel for millions of Europeans. Any explosions along French rail lines could have implications across Europe.
The government's strategy now appears to be running on two tracks. On one, it looks to be hoping to re-establish contact with AZF and continue negotiations. An aide to Sarkozy told French radio RTL on March 5: "Perhaps contact will be renewed. I hope so, but today we have no more contact."
At the same time, the government is expanding its interdiction measures. On March 4, thousands of railway workers were dispatched to inspect nearly 20,000 miles of tracks for bombs.
Nothing was found. Also, top anti-terrorism judge Jean-Louis Bruguiere has been charged with investigating the case. He joins a vast group of police and intelligence personnel trying to find answers to a multitude of questions.