With the accession of 10 eastern European (and poorer) nations into the EU in May 2004, one the main issues currently facing present EU members is the significant social and economic effect that is likely to occur as a new wave of immigrants start pouring in from the east. However, the following article, based on information from the National Confederation of Hungarian Trade Unions, sheds a different light and attempts to dismiss the likelihood of the occurrence of a large migration of jobseekers to the west. The article indicates that it was difficult to persuade Hungarian jobseekers to move 200 to 300km for well-paying jobs let alone moving to a different country. Also mentioned is that in 2003 only 638 Hungarians applied for the 2000 work permits available to them in Germany.
Even though it provides an interesting point of view, I think it is erroneous to try to extrapolate migration patterns for all the soon-to-be members of the EU based on information from Hungary for three reasons. First, the desire to immigrate has different connotations from culture to culture, therefore, it is wrong to assume that since few Hungarians chose to immigrate that the same will occur from the other soon-to-be members of the EU. Second, there are significant differences in relative wealth between the ten countries slated from accession. If we look at GDP per capita (US$), for example, it ranges from $4,421 in Latvia to $13,974 in Cyprus, while Hungary’s is $8,033. Again, with this much difference in wealth, it would be hard to imagine that immigration patterns would be the same for all slated entrants to the EU.
West's Fear of Influx Puzzles Hungary, Financial Times, Christopher Condon, Feb. 24, 2004.
EUROPE: West's fear of influx puzzles Hungary
By Christopher Condon in Budapest
Financial Times; Feb 24, 2004
At the height of an investment boom in western Hungary in the late 1990s, multinational investors began running out of locals ready to fill their assembly lines and offices. Many cast their eyes to poorer eastern Hungary, where unemployment was as high as 40 per cent.
Companies such as Audi, IBM and Philips were sure they could persuade job-seekers to move 200km to 300km for well-paying jobs with a prestigious foreign company. But they were wrong. Even within their own country, Hungarians proved largely immobile.
As aresult, Hungarians are wondering what all the fuss is about in other EU capitals over the flood of workers and spongers who will supposedly arrive from eastern Europe when the
Union grows from 15 to 25 members in May.
Of current EU members, all but Ireland and the UK have said they will restrict labour from new members for up to seven years.
Karoly Gyorgy, an official with the National Confederation of Hungarian Trade Unions, said the fears were unfounded.
"All the studies on this show the migration potential for Hungarians is about 2 per cent - about the same as in current EU countries," said Mr Gyorgy. "Frankly speaking, it's my perception that the debate in the UK is fuelled by politics and British trade unions."
Mr Gyorgy also pointed to recent news that, despite being more likely to head for Germany than the UK, Hungarians applied for only 638 of 2,000 German work permits available to them in 2003.
Beyond the fear of eager workers lie worries that thousands of poor Roma, or gypsies, will head west not for jobs, but simply for more generous social benefits.
Earlier this month, prodded by a rightwing press campaign, the British government announced plans to tighten migrants' access to welfare benefits.
About 1.5m Roma live in countries set to join the EU in May, including an estimated 500,000-600,000 in Hungary. Many of them live in squalid conditions with access to education and employment restricted by discrimination.
But Roma leaders and advocates in Hungary argue that those concerns over Roma emigration are also exaggerated.
"We have little indication there will be any significant movement," said Claude Cahn, programmes director for the European Roma Rights Centre in Budapest.
Posted by Michael Asefa at February 24, 2004 01:45 PMExcellent point. What would be interesting is to make a table of the policies adopted by the EU countries on one hand, and a table of income disparities of incoming countries on the other. That might give us, at least, a very complex view of what might happen.
Posted by: Francis Pisani at March 1, 2004 07:29 PM