From this conservative "intelligence gathering" news service, this view of France's diminishing influence in the world and how the government is trying to address it is a useful example of this country international standing today. It deals with the visit of Dominique de Villepin to 4 of the main Latin American countries in a effort to gather support for its world view (about the UN, and Iraq among other issues).
Comment from Strafor.com: "Confronted with the reality of its diminishing power, France had two options: accept its new second-tier status in a world dominated by U.S. economic and military might, or chart a new course to ensure Paris continues to be a force in global affairs -- at least in the eyes of the French, if not in fact."
Stratfor.com - France: Seeking Influence in Latin America
France: Seeking Influence in Latin America
Summary
French Foreign Minister Dominique de Villepin visited Latin America as Paris is intensifying efforts to craft a new foreign policy to reverse its waning influence in global and European affairs. In practice, the new bilateral relations Paris is seeking with key countries in Latin America likely won't have any major impact on geopolitical developments there.
Analysis
Over the past year, France has seen its influence significantly diminish in the arena of global affairs and within the European Union. This has greatly upset France, which likes to think of itself as a leading voice in the world; after all, it has a permanent seat on the U.N. Security Council and, with Germany, is a co-founder of the European Union.
Lately, France's perception of its place in the world has taken a beating. First the Iraq war, which Paris opposed bitterly in a joint alliance with Berlin, demonstrated that French foreign policy did not match the European Union's foreign policy. France and Germany tried to make their anti-war position the common EU foreign policy, but seven countries voted instead to back the United States. In the end, French President Jacques Chirac and German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder wound up looking to all the world like a pair of curmudgeons who the Bush administration and many of their EU peers simply ignored.
More recently, Paris has realized that the inclusion in May 2004 of 10 new EU members -- several of which also supported the Bush administration on the Iraq war and the fight against global terrorism -- will weaken French influence within the union even more. The incoming members have made it clear to Paris and Berlin that they will not let the Franco-German alliance dominate them on foreign policy or anything else.
Confronted with the reality of its diminishing power, France had two options: accept its new second-tier status in a world dominated by U.S. economic and military might, or chart a new course to ensure Paris continues to be a force in global affairs -- at least in the eyes of the French, if not in fact.
In recent months, Paris has intensified a far-reaching diplomatic offensive designed to make France a key force in a multipolar alliance of developing powers like China, Russia, India and South Africa. This week it was Latin America's turn. French Foreign Minister Dominique de Villepin made a five-day trip to Chile, Argentina, Brazil and Mexico from Feb. 2 through 6 to lay the foundations of a new alliance between Paris and the four countries in Latin America that France perceives as having any real importance to its interests.
From the Bush administration's perspective, the only ramification of French efforts to strengthen relations with these countries is that the new allies likely will try to speak with a more coordinated voice on Latin American foreign policy issues. This means that Paris might take positions on specific issues like Colombia, trade or Cuba that would run counter to U.S. interests.
However, Washington won't pay much attention -- just as it doesn't pay much attention to Brazil, Argentina and Mexico on these matters.
The official theme of de Villepin's visit was "Latin America and the new international order." He did not meet with Mexican President Vicente Fox, but he met with the presidents of Argentina, Brazil and Chile -- underscoring the importance these three South American countries assign to closer relations with Paris.
France clearly views Brazil as the Latin American pillar of the new alliance that would support multilateralism against U.S.
unilateralism. European diplomatic sources in Buenos Aires told Stratfor on Feb. 5 that the Chirac government views Brazilian President Luiz Inacio "Lula" da Silva as the most credible and geopolitically relevant head of state in Latin America today.
Argentina and Chile are perceived as being pulled along in Brazil's wake. Mexico is viewed as important because of its membership in the North American Free Trade Agreement and the free trade agreement it already has with the European Union.
Although de Villepin's trip didn't produce any major political announcements or economic agreements, France's new foreign policy foundations in Latin America were laid. They include securing Latin American support for a major overhaul of the United Nations, most particularly the U.N. Security Council. Paris might not be happy about the prospect that new EU members will create a more vigorously, pugnaciously democratic union, but it does want an expanded and more democratic U.N. Security Council to prevent the United States from unilaterally imposing its will.
De Villepin also obtained an endorsement from all four governments of the French position that power in Iraq should be transferred to U.N. authority as quickly as possible. He argued that this is a necessary step toward bringing democracy to Iraq more quickly and restoring the U.N.'s credibility and authority in a multilateral world. Of course, that power transfer also would help French companies gain faster, broader access to international reconstruction contracts, and would help Paris press its claims over its existing prewar contracts with the Hussein regime in oil and other sectors of Iraq's economy.
At each stop, De Villepin pledged his support on matters specifically important to these countries. For example, in Chile he said the territorial conflict with Bolivia is strictly a bilateral matter, but added that borders between nations are "intangible." Many Chileans interpreted this statement as supporting their position against Bolivia, though in fact the Bolivians also could see it as endorsing their position against Chile.
In Argentina, he pledged French approval of the March 2004 review of Argentina's agreement with the International Monetary Fund.
Senior fund officials warned recently that Buenos Aires could face trouble with the IMF if it doesn't tangibly progress on restructuring between $88 billion and $100 billion in defaulted debt. However, the pledge suggests that Paris is willing to continue approving IMF loans to Buenos Aires even if the debt talks remain stalled, as Stratfor thinks they likely will.
In Brazil, de Villepin stroked da Silva's ego when exalting Brazil's role in the new multipolar international order -- and in Mexico, he pledged that France will help make the May 28-29 Latin American-EU summit in Guadalajara a success. In short, de Villepin didn't bind France to any entangling commitments. For example, he didn't offer to relax French opposition to liberalizing agriculture in any future trade deal between the EU and the Mercosur customs union.
Ultimately, the new relations Paris is pursuing in South America likely won't translate into a surge in French investments and aid there. Nor will France change its position on some policy positions, such as in agriculture, that are dear to South American hearts. However, the presidents de Villepin met with were happy to host him. At a time when the Bush administration isn't paying much attention to the region, de Villepin's tour probably felt like balm on a sunburn.
Posted by Francis Pisani at February 8, 2004 12:18 PM