Opponents point to a similar system Iowa voters approved in 2002 saying that it resulted in an increase in sex offenders failing to register.

“This legislation will drive offenders in two directions: out of urban areas into rural areas, and underground into hiding,” said family therapist, social worker, and former education chairperson of the California Coalition on Sexual Offending Ron Kokish.

At the core of the measure are residency restrictions prohibiting sexual offenders from living within 2,000 feet of schools, parks or playgrounds; increased sentencing and parole terms; and lifetime tracking of sexual offenders using global positioning system or GPS ankle bracelets.

If passed, operating costs for Prop. 83 will reach $200 million annually over the next decade according to the California Legislative Analyst’s Office.

There are 63,000 registered sex offenders living in towns and cities throughout California; and of those, more than 7,000 reside in the San Francisco Bay area.

Prop. 83 is known as “Jessica’s Law” after Jessica Lunsford, a nine-year-old Florida girl who was sexually assaulted and killed in 2005 by a registered sex offender.

About 76 percent of the public supports Prop. 83, according to an August Field poll. Sponsored by husband and wife State Senator George Runner and Assemblywoman Sharon Runner of Lancastor, the proposition is co-sponsored by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, and supported by his opponent, Phil Angelides.

In an election year, candidates would be hard-pressed to oppose an initiative slated to protect the state’s children from sex offenders, political analysts said. Though opponents of the initiative have little in the way of an organized campaign, many social workers who counsel and treat sex offenders said the measure fails to address the nature of these crimes.

Ninety percent of child sexual molestation victims know their offenders and half of those offenders are family members according to the attorney general. “The vast majority of these men are not out cruising playgrounds and schools,” said Kokish. “They’re visiting a neighbor or they’re an uncle or family friend and this legislation does little to stop them.”

Janlee Wong, executive director of the National Association of Social Workers’ California chapter, added, “Prop. 83 is a politically popular piecemeal approach which will result in a flawed system. It does not include treatment. Social workers believe that treatment needs to be part of the package, not just punishment.”

“We don’t think it is sufficient to tell people we have offenders on GPS and that there are zones forbidden to them,” said Wong. “That’s a sham on the public, making them think they’re safe.”

Organizations and representatives from the state’s rural areas are also concerned. Senator Dean Florez from Kern County worries that the residency restrictions will drive sex offenders out of cities making rural areas, “a dumping ground for sexual predators.”

In California, paroled sex offenders considered “high risk” are already being monitored in pilot programs that use GPS devices.

Even the proposition’s most steadfast critics acknowledge that the GPS device can be a useful tool in managing dangerous sexual predators on parole and in the community. But, they want to know what happens when sex offenders go off parole.

“The initiative doesn’t specify who is responsible for monitoring GPS tracked sex offenders once discharged from parole,” said Brian Brown, spokesperson for the Legislative Analyst’s Office. “Additional legislation would be required to figure that out.”

Citing the difficulty of placing and tracking sex offenders and the likelihood that many will become homeless, Mike Jimenez, head of the state prison guards union, recently called the proposition a “bad idea.” The union originally gave the Yes on 83 campaign $25,000.

Contributions to the Yes on 83 campaign total almost $2 million. The Larry Rasmussen Trust, the Viejas Tribal Government, the Nicholas Family Trust and Desert Valley Medical Group have each donated more than $100,000. Satellite Tracking of People and other companies selling GPS technologies have also contributed.