Pombo in Close Fight to Retain Seat in Contra Costa County Congressional Race
BERKELEY - Most of the Congressional races to be decided in California today are regarded as a done deal. Because of gerrymandered districts or non-threatened incumbents, California—with 53 Congressional districts, more than any other state—has only three really competitive Congressional matchups this fall.
| A map of the 11th Congressional district from Citmedia.org. |
One, the 11th, is right here, stretching from the East Bay out to the Central Valley. Republican Rep. Richard Pombo, from Tracy, is being challenged for a second time by renewable wind energy businessman Jerry McNerney (D-Pleasanton). This time McNerney has more money and support, but Pombo has nevertheless raised more than twice as much money.
“We have never seen Pombo have to campaign so hard,” said Renee Reece, a Tracy resident and Pombo supporter.
Until this year, the conservative Pombo had not faced any tough elections since he was first elected to Congress in 1992. Three years ago he became chairman of the House Resources Committee, which helps oversee environmental policy. He has gained national attention, and the ire of environmental groups, as a champion of private property rights.
McNerney has said he was inspired to run for Congress after 9/11. He is opposed to the war in Iraq, and has called for pulling out American troops. With his background in renewable wind energy, McNerney says, he wants to guide the nation towards clean energy.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee recently put the race on their “red to blue” program, highlighting it on their website to attract donations for McNerney from around the country.
The 11th district meanders from west from Stockton, through Tracy into the East Bay communities of Pleasanton, San Ramon and Danville, and picks up Morgan Hill in the South Bay. Republicans have a 6-point voter registration advantage over Democrats in the district, and 54% of the registered voters are in the Central Valley. The old district Pombo represented in the 1990’s was fully contained in the Central Valley.
The Central Valley is full of middle-class voters, looking for an affordable place to live and raise their children. Stockton and Tracy are seeing an influx of new residents from the Bay Area looking for affordable housing. Farmland is being replaced by track homes. Many of these new residents keep their Bay Area jobs and commute through the Altamont Pass every day into the Bay Area.
These demographic shifts are changing the whole region’s politics. “They’re not the older generation,”” said Kate Benner, a Stockton resident and McNerney supporter. “It’s probably more mid 20’s to late 30’s who are starting families and wanting a home.”
These former Bay Area residents may be bringing their liberal attitudes out to the Central Valley with them. But they may be so new to the region, busy raising families and commuting to work, that they don’t have time to pay attention to local politics.
"I would hope that they are bringing that liberal bent out here with them, but I don’t know if that’s the case,” said Benner. “I have to wonder if because they are spending so much time on the road, if they are really not paying attention to what is going on politically.”
Whether or not voters in the Central Valley are new arrivals of have been there for decades, McNerney feels they have some of the same concerns.
“The Central Valley voters are really concerned about jobs,” said Jerry McNerney.
“They’re concerned about the traffic. Commuting over to the Bay Area is a real problem for a lot of people. And of course education, because education is the key to success for any of their children.”
The Central Valley has a conservative base, they say. Some of the elected officials in San Joaquin County are Democrats and others are Republicans, but most do prescribe to a conservative philosophy regardless of their partisan affiliation. And Republicans continue to perform very well in the area.
“Any theory that the Bay Area liberalism of Berkeley is moving into the Central Valley is somewhat misguided,” said Carl Fogliani, Pombo’s campaign manager. “It doesn’t show up in the results of seats that continue to be won by the Republican Party in this region.”
The Bay Area portion of the district is also changing. Danville and surrounding cities are still some of the most conservative in the whole Bay Area. But even those Republican strongholds are changing, some observers say. “Danville used to be very conservative, but it’s changed over the years,” said Linda Corbitt, a Danville resident for over 20 years. “We have new people and it’s people coming from all over the country. It used to be fairly self contained, and now it’s changed.”
These communities have elected Republican Guy Houston to the State Assembly, and in the last two decades supported former Republican Congressman Richard Rainey, former Republican State Senator and Assemblymember Richard Rainey, and former Republican Assemblymember Lynne Leach.
But most of these Republicans aren’t in office any more. Baker and Rainey actually lost to their Democratic challengers, in 1996 and 2000 respectively. Houston replaced Lynne Leach in the Assembly in 2002, but his district is gerrymandered out to the Central Valley searching for more conservative voters.
Conventional wisdom says the liberal attitudes of Berkeley and San Francisco have seeped through the Caldecott Tunnel--first into Orinda, Moraga and Lafayette; and now through Walnut Creek, enroute down to Danville. No one is quite sure what to expect from these new voters in the affluent, once reliably Republican bastion of Danville.
“I think you have people [in Danville] very moderate,” said Danville City Council member Candace Andersen, a Republican. “You have a very well educated population. They don’t just vote a party line, but they look carefully, and then decide what makes sense for me and my values.”