The Indiana elections reflect the nationwide disapproval of the war, an all-time low approval rating for President George Bush and GOP scandals that have put the Democrats in a position to take control of the House.

“The sentiment about the war sets the stage for discussions about other issues, making voters more inclined to change,” said Russell Hanson, a political scientist at Indiana University. “I don’t think you can say this is a referendum on the war because there are important local issues, but I don’t think these seats would be in play if the environment were not as it were on a national level.”

All 435 House seats are up for election and the Democrats need to add 15 seats to take control. So far, Democrats lead Republicans 50 to 39 percent in the 40 most contested House races, according to the most recent poll from the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, a non-partisan political research institute based in Washington D.C. The survey has a 2.5 percent margin of error.

According to political pundits, Indiana is a good indicator of how badly some Republicans are faring in the mid-term elections. Voters in the red-leaning state have supported the Republican presidential candidate in every election for the last 30 years, but this year, analysts predict the Democratic candidates in three traditionally Republican districts have a good chance of unseating the GOP incumbents.

In each of these three races, local issues are providing a tipping point for Republicans already dissatisfied with their party. The Democrats who lost by narrow margins in 2004, have returned to turn those losses and those issues into victories.

Local political experts said John Hostettler, the District 8 incumbent, has already lost the race to Democrat John Ellsworth, who is moderate on value issues such as gun control and abortion. His stance on the issues — he has refrained from criticizing President Bush — make him acceptable to the district’s largely conservative voters who are looking for a change.

“(Hostettler) is in the most trouble,” Hanson said. “(The seat) has been in Republican hands for a long time, but no one thought he was safely ensconced in the seat.”

District 2 Democrat Joe Donnelly, also a moderate on gun control and abortion, lost by nine points to Republican Chris Chocola in 2004, but is now nine points ahead of Chocola in the most recent Reuters poll.

Analysts said the Democratic challenger’s chances for the district that borders Michigan and depends heavily on the failing auto industry, are being determined by the voters’ unhappiness with how the Republicans have managed the economy.

“There has been a slight upturn nationwide, but not as much in Indiana,” Hanson said. “Certain areas have been left behind. The economy here is not as robust and that is making economic issues significant.”

In District 9, Republican Mike Sodrel defeated Democrat Baron Hill by 1,500 votes in 2004, but this year analysts call the match a toss up and one of the most heated house races in the country. The latest Reuters poll gave Hill an eight-point lead over Sodrel.

The Republican backlash is starting to have an impact on the race in District 3 between Republican Mark Souder and Democrat Thomas Hayhurst, Hanson said. Green Party candidate Christine Murphy is pulling in points also, which could take votes from the other parties, he said.

This same dynamic, overall dissatisfaction with the Republican Party coupled with local issues is occurring throughout the country, and threatens to unseat GOP incumbents in what were once thought to be safe seats.

In Pennsylvania’s 10th district, a long-time Republican stronghold, incumbent Don Sherwood hopes to return for a fifth term. But after news of a five-year extramarital affair was recently released, analysts said Democratic candidate Chris Carney is doing well.

Carney proposes to bring one U.S. battalion home for every Iraqi battalion that is trained. In June, Sherwood voted against a withdrawal timetable from Iraq.

New York’s District 26 pits incumbent Republican Tom Reynolds against Democrat Jack Davis. Reynolds beat Davis 56 to 44 percent in the 2004 election. Up until late September Reynolds was running strong, but alleged connections to the Mark Foley page scandal could cost him the seat. Republican Rep. Rodney Alexander said he told Reynolds last year about inappropriate e-mails Foley sent to congressional pages. Reynolds said the e-mails Alexander mentioned were not sexual.

National issues, such as the war, party scandal and the president’s low ratings, could also unseat Republican incumbent Dave Reichert from his District 8 seat in Washington. Challenger Darcy Burner supports a plan to secure Iraq without keeping troops there indefinitely, while Reichert is against a timeline for withdrawal.

Analysts call the New Mexico District 1 race between Republican incumbent Heather Wilson and Democrat Patricia Madrid a toss up, but said the political climate could push votes Madrid’s way.

The Democrats appear to be the strong favorites in two of these seats, while the others are being called tossups that lean toward the Democrats.