And if Schwarzenegger’s strong numbers stay high enough, some observers say, that could bring in other Republicans running statewide.

“The top of the ticket on the Republican side has to be in the mid to high 50s before he can pull them in,” said Allan Hoffenbum, publisher of the California Target Book, a nonpartisan analysis of legislative and congressional elections. “What you need is such an overwhelming crossover vote that they vote for the Republican down the ballot.”

Already, according to a Field Poll taken in mid-September, the gap between Democratic nominees John Garamendi, running for lieutenant governor, and Jerry Brown, running for attorney general, and their Republican challengers has gotten smaller since the summer.

During a roundtable discussion last week at UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies Center on Politics, California Democratic Party Chair Art Torres said the governor’s race remained a real problem for the state’s Democrats.

“This is probably the most difficult year we as Democrats have had in a gubernatorial race,” Torres said. “Even though we have a candidate that is the best we have had, we can’t break through the celebrity status of Arnold Schwarzenegger.”

Torres also said Schwarzenegger couldn’t be trusted to stay on the moderate track he has paved for himself this year by supporting raising the minimum wage and environmental legislation, and by working with Democrats in the Legislature.

“In 2006 he listened to Maria and hired Democrats,” said Torres. “One I helped train, his chief of staff, Susan Kennedy.” Torres said he expects Schwarzenegger to revert to his conservative and anti-union positions of last year’s special election, when his popularity was at an all-time low.

The room was filled with about 25 people, from students in their 20s to senior citizens. Most of the audience members were Democrats, who grilled Torres with political questions, such as what the Democrats are doing to win in California, why a specific candidate isn’t doing well enough, or how Democrats can win Congress back.

“We’re short of money and we’re trying to put resources into the field and get the voters out,” Torres said in answer to a question about how Democratic campaign money is being spent. “For one week of television, it costs $1.9 million.”

He indicated that Democrats in California have a get out the vote operation and that this is the most cost effective expenditure of resources.

Torres said that during this election cycle, between candidates and initiatives, more than $400 million dollars will be spent.

Because so much money is raised and campaign finance laws have made raising money more cumbersome, Torres said, “twenty-five percent of our staff is hired to deal with fundraising and contribution laws.”

Torres is confident, he said, about Democrats’ chances of taking back Congress. Torres compared this year’s polling numbers to those that preceded the 1994 Republican takeover of Congress.

“In 1994 there was a six point spread that Republicans should take over” Congress, he said. A recent Wall Street Journal poll, he said, put that number at 15 points today for the Democrats.

Torres pointed to two California Republican Congressional incumbents Democrats are going after: Representative John Doolittle (R-Rocklin) and Representative Richard Pombo (R-Tracy). Doolittle is being challenged by Charlie Brown, and Pombo by Jerry McNerney.

Torres said two things are happening in each of these districts to make them more liberal. Bay Area residents are moving east into Pombo’s district and commuting into the Bay Area; and Bay Area retirees are moving further east to retire in the Sierra Nevada foothills of Doolittle’s district.

Torres spoke to a concern that Democratic turnout might be weak because of Angelides’ low numbers or because there are too few competitive races across the state. He said Democrats will turn out to vote, especially if Democrats take back the House before California polls close.

“At 5 o’clock California time, we may find out if Nancy Pelosi is Speaker, and this may affect turnout in California for Republicans,” Torres said.

In 1980, when Jimmy Carter was declared to have lost the Presidency to Ronald Reagan before polls in California closed, Democratic turnout in California dropped. Democrats felt they had no reason to vote, since Carter had lost.

If Republicans appear to have lost the House before California polls close, Republicans similarly may find no reason to go out and vote, Torres said.