California and National Elections

Democrats Seize Control of the House

BERKELEY - With races in Indiana, Arizona and Kentucky pushing their incumbents out, it became clear soon after the polls closed on the East Coast Tuesday night that the Democrats would take control of the House of Representatives for the first time in 12 years.

In an election with 35 contested seats, overall dissatisfaction with the Bush administration and the war in Iraq, coupled with local issues, proved disastrous for Republican incumbents.

Democrats gained more than the 15 seats needed to put them in control of the House and officials from both parties said the late West Coast results would only add to their victory.

“It’s a step forward. It means (Democrats) are not completely shut out of the policy-making process,” said Bruce Cain, Director of the UC Berkeley Institute on Governmental Studies.

“It’s a rejection of the conservative part of Congress. (Voters) are looking to check the power of the presidency and find compromise.”

With Democratic control of the House, Rep. Nancy Pelosi, the current minority leader from California, will most likely become House speaker, replacing Illinois Republican Dennis Hastert.

In the most expensive mid-term elections in American history, analysts said some incumbents in Republican strongholds lost their seats to middle ground Democrats.

“The Democrats won by having a lot of people who don’t hold Democratic values,” said Debra J. Saunders, a political columnist with the San Francisco Chronicle. “They moved to the center.”

In Indiana – said to be a good indicator of how badly some GOP members were faring – Democrats swept three key races and unseated incumbents in a traditionally Republican state. Results were delayed in Indiana and 11 other states because of voter machine malfunctions.

Republican John Hostettler, the District 8 incumbent, fell behind early in the evening to Democrat John Ellsworth, who is moderate on value issues such as gun control and abortion. Democrat Joe Donnelly, who also holds moderate stances on those issues, slipped by Republican Chris Chocola with an eight-point lead.

Six-term Arizona Republican J.D. Hayworth, who ran on strict border control, lost to Democrat Harry Mitchell in the Fifth District, an indication of how a strong anti-immigration stance by Republicans in the Southwest may have backfired.

In Kentucky’s District 3, five-term Republican incumbent Anne Northrup lost her seat to Democrat John Yarmuth. While Northrup depicted Yarmuth as a liberal and tried to draw attention to local issues such as district infrastructure projects, Yarmuth linked Northrup to national issues and the Bush administration.

During her concession speech, Northrup, who has been known for winning close races, acknowledged the national focus made her campaign more difficult. “I had to run against the national news,” she said to her campaign and reporters.

The Republican scandals, such as Rep. Mark Foley’s sexual e-mails to Congressional pages and Tom DeLay’s alleged campaign finance scheme have also pushed traditional GOP supporters away from the party.

Three out of four voters said corruption was important in their decision and two in three voters said the war was an important issue when voting, according to Associated Press exit polls.

In Pennsylvania’s Tenth District, a long-time Republican stronghold, five-term GOP incumbent Don Sherwood lost momentum after news of a five-year extramarital affair was recently released. He lost to Democrat Chris Carney, who proposed bringing home one U.S. battalion for every Iraqi battalion that is trained. In June, Sherwood voted against an Iraq withdrawal timetable.

In Florida’s District 16, Democrat Tim Mahoney beat out Republican Joe Negron, who took Foley’s seat after the Congressional page e-mail scandal broke earlier this year.

Ohio’s Zack Space was the runaway winner of District 18 over Republican Joy Padgett. Padgett replaced six-term incumbent Bob Ney after he pled guilty to corruption charges.

Long-term incumbents also felt the effects on the East Coast of the most competitive election since Republicans took control of the House in 1994, including New Hampshire and Connecticut. Republican 12-term veteran Nancy Johnson in Connecticut’s Fifth District also lost her seat to Democrat Chris Murphy.

Johnson, who tried to distance herself from her more conservative colleagues, focused on domestic issues such as healthcare and taxes, but turned to national security in what appeared a last ditch attempt to win votes.

Analysts wonder how the power shift will affect policy.

“These aren’t going to be bold, adventurous Democrats,” said Robert Reich, Berkeley public policy professor and former Clinton administration secretary of labor, referring to the more moderate positions of the Democratic candidates.

Although races in Missouri and Virginia were too close Tuesday night to determine Senate control, officials said the House gain would still give Democrats an edge.