California and National Elections

Angelides Wages Uphill Struggle Against Popular Governor

SAN FRANCISCO- Democratic gubernatorial candidate Phil Angelides appeared elated as he listened to the cheers and drum beating of supporters on a recent sunny afternoon in San Francisco’s Chinatown.

Against a backdrop of blue signs promoting his campaign, the grandson of Greek immigrants took to the microphone and spoke movingly to the rally of Chinese Americans about how California has been shaped by the working and middle classes.

“My grandfather worked the railroads, just like the Chinese,” said Angelides. “I will honor not only my parents and grandparents, I will honor the sacrifice of your parents and grandparents.”

For the moment, it seemed that California’s State Treasurer had forged a real connection with the gathered voters as his 22-year-old daughter, Christina, echoed his message to the delighted crowd in Mandarin, their native language.

The only problem: It was likely too little too late.

Though Angelides has made a frenzied series of campaign stops around the state in the weeks preceding the Nov. 7 election, Republican incumbent Arnold Schwarzenegger’s superior financing, similar platform, and broadly successful early attacks on his opponent have eclipsed Angelides’s last-ditch efforts.

Angelides trails the governor by 18 points, according to the most recent Public Policy Institute of California survey – a margin that has grown since the summer months. Even in the San Francisco Bay Area, a longstanding Democratic stronghold, Schwarzenegger leads by 6 points.

“Well look, it’s been tough,” Angelides said after the Chinatown rally, referring to the difficult task of campaigning against a celebrity incumbent with exceptional money raising powers. “I’m running against Arnold Schwarzenegger.”

Angelides, the state Treasurer since 1998, has raised about $18.5 million this year compared to the governor’s $38.8 million.

Schwarzenegger’s shift to the political middle since the 2005 special election has made the race even harder for Angelides.

After California voters rejected a series of special ballot propositions designed to forward the governor’s agenda last November, Schwarzenegger immediately responded to the rebuke by apologizing and promising to be more bipartisan.

“Once Schwarzenegger decided to reclaim the political center there wasn’t really anywhere else for Angelides to go,” said Dan Schnur, a Republican political and media strategist.

Over the past year, Schwarzenegger has signed a series of Assembly-backed bills that pulled him towards the left and into the public’s favor, Schnur said.

One bill, which Schwarzenegger vetoed two prior times, will increase California’s minimum wage to $8 — the highest in the country. Two other bills that the governor signed in September addressed environmental and healthcare issues. One aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 25 percent by 2020. The other lowered the cost of prescription drugs for low-income Californians. Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez (D-Los Angeles) took a leading role in drafting both bills.

Although registered Democratic voters outnumber Republicans by almost one third, California has only had four Democratic governors since 1900 – Culbert Olson, Pat Brown, his son Jerry Brown, and Gray Davis.

Thad Kousser, an author and political science professor at UC San Diego, who has published articles on the initiative process and campaign finance laws, observed that moderation as a political tactic has long served California politicians.

“That is what happens in American politics,” he said. “There are a lot of governors and senators who are moderate that win in states that lean in the other direction. It is no surprise that Schwarzenegger has found room to move.”

A casual voter, Schnur added, may not see much difference between Schwarzenegger and Angelides, apart from the obvious contrast in their physical appearance and public recognition.

While the muscle bound governor possesses tanned, movie star looks and has made appearances on the Tonight Show and other national programs during his campaign, Angelides is lanky and bespectacled and has struggled to attract voters through small neighborhood appearances and house parties.

Their politics, on the other hand, are harder to contrast.

Both Schwarzenegger and Angelides support some form of a guest worker program and have criticized the recent federal bill approving a fence along the Mexican border as an incomplete remedy. Both also propose putting more money towards education and restructuring the current healthcare system.

“We have to bring both parties together to find a solution [to healthcare].” Schwarzenegger said at a recent medical meeting on new broadband technology. “No one party has the solution…it is a failing system that we have right now and we don’t want to just throw more money at it.”

But Angelides contends that the governor’s bipartisan rhetoric is superficial, as is the public perception that the governor and he share political viewpoints.

Shortly after entering office, Schwarzenegger vetoed a bill that would have allowed illegal immigrants to obtain drivers licenses. In the past, he has also supported the Minutemen, a group of armed U.S. citizens that patrol the Mexican border.

Angelides also points to Schwarzenegger’s failure to follow through on a $2 billion promise to California’s struggling public school system in 2005 and his continuous vetoes of healthcare reform bills since taking office.

“I think he [Schwarzenegger] believes in only one thing, himself,” Angelides said. “He will say anything or do anything to win. The people get that. In their gut they know there is something inherently phony in the guy.”

Schwarzenegger, however, has since settled the lawsuit that the California Teachers Association and the State Superintendent of Public Instruction filed against him in reaction to his unfulfilled promise and he has now dubbed 2007 the year for healthcare reform.

Even on the issue of taxes, the most glaring difference between the two candidates, Schwarzenegger has managed to come out ahead.

Schwarzenegger, who has repeatedly emphasized that he will not raise taxes, launched a multi-million dollar negative campaign against Angelides this summer that portrayed the fiscally minded Democrat as a politician willing to tax the people.

In reality Angelides had proposed $788 million of tax relief to middleclass families earning up to $100,000 a year and a $526 million in tax relief to 1.1 million small businesses in California plus $600 million in college tuition rollbacks.

He has also proposed hiking taxes by about $5 billion on top income owners and big businesses.

“I believe tax breaks aught to go to people living paycheck to paycheck,” Angelides said. “Not to corporations with ten lobbyists on their payroll. I believe the small business owners deserve a break. I don’t think Exxon Mobile needs anymore.”

Ling Wong, who owns a Chinese grocery shop in Chinatown, said her shop has struggled with increased licensing fees and even higher meter fees that deter people from spending a long time in Chinatown.

“We work seven days a week from early morning until seven at night,” said Wong. “[Angelides] might help our business and spread more understanding to Chinatown.”

Ricardo Solis, 56, a senior health inspector in Los Angeles Country and son of Mexican immigrants, said he thinks Angelides understands the working and middle class and the importance of education.

“I think Phil Angelides really touches base with the immigrant community,” Solis said. “He is really sincere and he can relate a lot more than Arnold.”

According to the Public Policy survey, Angelides’s support among Latino voters has reached a two-to-one margin over Schwarzenegger, or 52 percent to 25 percent.

Solis sees Schwarzenegger’s recent actions as nothing more than a political ploy.

As evidence that Schwarzenegger bipartisan maneuvers may be for show, Kousser pointed out that the governor vetoed just about as many bills this year as he did in 2005.

“He [signed] a few high profile bills… and he got to reap the political rewards,” said Kousser.

He added that other politicians, specifically Nunez and Democratic Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, who some political analysts say may run for governor in 2010, have shared in the spoils of bipartisan cooperation.

“I don’t think they will be crying together about Phil Angelides’s loss,” Kousser said. “They have aspirations of their own and Arnold’s [win] may leave a clear path for them in 2010.”

It is the Republicans, in fact, who have expressed the greatest worry, said Mike Spence, President of the Californian Republican Assembly, the largest and oldest statewide volunteer republican organization.

“There is the concern that the type of voters the governor is attracting aren’t the kind of voters who would vote for normal Republicans, ” Spence said.

Republicans have also been less than thrilled with Schwarzenegger’s public policy positions, said Spence.

“It leaves most Republicans having a different opinion then their Republican governor,” Spence said. “But the Republicans are a lot more unhappy with Phil Angelides so the governor benefits.”