November 10, 2004
Enthusiasm on Wall Street after the election may not last
New York correspondent of Xinhua News Agency summarized the main influence of the election on Wall Street on Nov.9.
Wall Street cheered after Bush's victory, as the economic policy in the next term should favor the investor. Tax reduction is at the core of Bush's program, and his Social security reform should widen the role of the stock market in allocating pension savings. Reducing the burden of financing Social security for the enterprises would stimulate them to create more employment. Moreover, many companies will benefit from the orders related to national defence.
However, according to the article, some economists are pessimistic about the performance of the economy in the long run. Two key indicators are the increase of employment and profit margins of companies. The likelihood that the second Bush administration will drive them higher is small.
By most measures, the Federal Reserve is less than halfway through a course of gradually "normalizing" short-term interest rates.
Posted by at 1:22 PM
November 8, 2004
What Beijing really thinks about Bush
While the official reaction of China to the Bush re-election has been diplomatic and polite, this article from Asia Today exposes the real feelings of the Chinese leaders. A recent "gaffe" of a senior retired Chinese diplomat (which went almost unnoticed in the US, but created a lot of embarrassment in Beijing) tells the true story.
Beijing in a bind over fluffed lines
By Antoaneta Bezlova
BEIJING - The 2004 vote for the US president would have gone down in history as one of the most painless polls for China, since Washington recognized its communist government in 1979 - had it not been for a political gaffe committed by a senior retired Beijing statesman on the eve of the elections. Now it's time for damage control and Beijing couldn't be more effusive in its praise of the winner, especially after a US campaign devoid of traditional China bashing over lost jobs and human rights. The English-language China Daily even gushed: "Today's Bush is no longer the ignorant, arrogant Western cowboy of the past."
Although Beijing tried to distance itself from stinging remarks by the respected former foreign minister Qian Qichen, who lashed out at what he called the administration of President George W Bush's "cocksureness and arrogance" in its attempt to "rule the world", the published commentary nonetheless exposed certain Chinese leaders' anxiety over US unilateralism and its future manifestations.
The incident also marred what promised to be a remarkably trouble-free US election for Beijing. For the first time since the 1970s, China was no longer a vote-swinging issue in the US presidential election campaign.
"The anti-China platform hasn't been vociferous in these US elections," remarked Professor Rick Baum, political scientist at the University of California in Los Angeles.
In previous elections, challengers always assailed the incumbent president as being too "friendly" with Beijing leaders. Accusations against Beijing ranged from condemnation of the country's human-rights record and the subjugation of the Tibetan people to China's alleged stealing of US jobs.
However, the "China threat" hardly featured in the salvo of critical appraisals fired at President Bush by his Democrat challenger Senator John Kerry. And mainland Chinese analysts agreed more than disagreed that whoever won the elections, it would make little difference to US-China relations.
"Unlike previous US elections, this time both [Republican and Democratic party] candidates have a clear recognition of China's rise as a world power and its importance as a strategic ally," said Zhang Guoqing, research fellow with the American Studies Institute under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. "This US acknowledgment of China's increasing world influence cannot be easily undermined by a mere change of the US president," Zhang said in an interview.
Xue Yabo, a researcher with the Institute for National Defense under the China Renmin University, went even further to suggest that the "Bush administration's neo-conservatism has contributed to the revival of American policy [that gravitates] towards China".
"There is a tacit political agreement between Beijing and Washington that no other domestic considerations by either side should be allowed to disturb the global effort to combat terrorism," Xue wrote in the Beijing-based Xinjing Bao daily. "The fight against terrorism is the core of Bush's neo-conservative politics and Washington's policies towards China in the foreseeable future would be unavoidably constrained by this," he added.
Both US and Chinese observers have praised relations between the two countries in the wake of the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001, as the "best ever" - with Beijing aligning itself with Washington in the global "war against terrorism". Also, both sides concentrated on expanding bilateral economic and trade ties.
Although China opposed the war in Iraq, the overall climate had continued to be free of tangible tensions. But just as Beijing was becoming comfortable about any outcome of the elections, a press blunder exposed the undercurrent flaws in US-China relations. On Monday, the day before the election, the state-run English-language China Daily carried a prominent commentary by Qian, regarded as the doyen of Chinese foreign policy. The timing of the article itself was significant and it marked a sharp departure from Beijing's past refusal to comment on US presidential elections.
The Chinese Foreign Ministry later said that the article was not "specially commissioned" and its timing was unfortunate. But whatever the circumstances behind its publication, there was little doubt about its unabashed push against US President George W Bush and his unilateralist policies.
The commentary insinuated that Beijing is uneasy about the change of political dynamics in the aftermath of the US-led anti-Iraq campaign. Also, Qian hinted that China was wary of another four years of the Bush administration, in terms of what it might deliver on the international front.
Qian also accused Bush's government of having "opened a Pandora's box, intensifying various intermingled conflicts, such as ethnic and religious ones". He criticized the "Bush doctrine" in which the US created the so-called "axis of evil" and allowed for "pre-emptive strategies" to rule US politics.
Within China's diplomatic circles, Qian's comments have been taken seriously. Although retired, he is said to exert strong behind-the-scenes influence in China's foreign policy, and many diplomats believe his comments could reflect the thinking of certain Chinese leaders. Qian is the most respected senior Chinese diplomat and is credited with re-establishing China's international standing in the aftermath of the June 1989 bloody crackdown on peaceful pro-democracy students in Tiananmen Square.
In the hours after Bush's re-election was confirmed, Beijing tried to repair the diplomatic damage done by the former foreign minister's remarks. In a congratulatory message sent to the White House, President Hu Jintao lauded the progress in Sino-US relations during Bush's first term in office.
Hu also said he was looking forward to working with Bush in promoting "constructive cooperative relations" between the two countries during the US president's second term. State-owned newspapers, too, have lauded Bush's victory in an effort to undermine Qian's comments. The Beijing Youth Daily said it had seen the emergence of a more mature Bush, commenting: "Today's Bush is no longer the ignorant, arrogant Western cowboy of the past."
Posted by Federico Rampini at 5:19 PM
Beijing to Bush: don't be a protectionist
This analysis from the official Chinese newswire Xinhua agency deals with the American economic policy after the election. The most interesting part - from the Chinese perspective - is at the end. Xinhua uses the authority of the chairman of the US Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan, to ask George Bush to avoid any protectionnist measure. Trade relations are tense because on January 1st, 2005, the rules of the World Trade Organization require a full liberalization of garments and textile imports in the US, but American producers have been asking Bush to impose limits against the invasion of "made in China".
US Economic Policy After Bush's Reelection
US President George W. Bush pledged to seek to earn the trust of those who did not back him during the election campaign, after claiming a reelection victory on Wednesday.
How will he win the trust from people in the coming four years when the US economy is facing so many challenges?
Bush took office in January 2001, when the US economy, coming down from the summit of the longest growth period in history, was plunging into a recession.
Taking tax cuts as the core of his economic policies, Bush unveiled four tax-cut packages in the past four years to spur the economy, resulting at last in a strong recovery starting from the middle of last year.
However, the US economy is still facing many problems when Bush succeeded in his efforts to win a next term.
There is a sluggish labor market. Although 1.8 million jobs have been added to the payrolls of US businesses since August 2003, there are about 800,000 fewer jobs than the level when Bush took office four year ago.
US federal deficit soared to a record high of US$413 billion in fiscal year 2004 ending September 30, compared with a surplus of more than US$230 billion just before Bush became president.
Income gap between the rich and the poor is also expanding as most of the tax-cut went to the pockets of the richest Americans.
Some analysts said that the gloomy economic picture in the past four years would have pushed Bush out of the White House if there had been no terrorist attacks in 2001, which has changed the US dramatically ever since.
"A new term is a new opportunity to reach out to the whole nation," Bush said when announcing his success on Wednesday. But how to realize it economically? There is much to wait and see.
Undoubtedly, tax-cut will continue to be the core of economic policies in his four-year new term. Bush has promised time again in his presidential campaign that he will make his tax cut measures permanent in a bid to realize a long-term economic growth and thus increase job growth.
He also stressed the need to simplify the complicated US tax code to increase the government revenue. Yes. The tax-cut packages have been successful in the past years in terms of stimulating the economy.
However, they also contributed to the soaring federal deficit. Making the tax cuts permanent would add nearly US$1 trillion to federal debt by 2014. It will possibly smash Bush's hope that the government deficit will cut by a half in the next four years. High federal deficit will also become one of several hinders in the US economic growth.
Among Bush's most ambitious domestic goals is to remake Social Security that remained largely unchanged since it was created about 70 years ago. Trying to change the system is politically perilous, because of the program's popularity and the large number of seniors who depend on it.
Bush vowed both to shore up its finances and to create new private accounts in addition to the venerable government program. It may be a good test but with serious risks.
The US policy in its foreign trade relations with other countries is also a concern for many nations.
US Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan has warned for many times against the increase of trade protectionism in the country in recent years, warning that protectionism has resulted in increasing trade disputes between the US and other countries.
Bush should adjust his trade policy in the new term to smooth the relations because the trend of globalization has became stronger these years and surely will become much more stronger in coming years.
(Xinhua News Agency November 5, 2004)
Posted by Federico Rampini at 11:27 AM
November 7, 2004
A Chinese reader writes to George Bush
"An open letter to President Bush" by Willie Wong is an interesting Chinese reaction to the US election. It has been published on China Daily, which is an English-language newspaper published in Beijing under the control of the Chinese governement. Although this is probably a true letter from a true reader, nonetheless it has been "approved" for publishing. Therefore it can be a sample of Chinese feelings towards the US, both among citizens and leaders. It is interesting that Willie Wong uses against Bush the "true" principles of Christian religion...which does not enjoy unlimited freedom in China.
An open letter to Pres. Bush
Willie Wong
Dear President Bush:
Congratulations for winning your second term as president of the United States!
1. About four years ago before you were elected president I wrote you a letter that I wanted to talk to you about Christ and China. I asked you not to use Jesus Christ for political reasons as many US presidents had done in the past. I also asked you not to treat China as an enemy, for China is no threat to the US and US had wronged China too many times. I had seen your two ads, George W. Bush, His Faith and George W. Bush, The Truth (presented by Google) on my homepage. 2. Being given a second chance, it is hoped you do something right to earn your rightful place in history. I presented to you the idea of "historical moment" whereby you can make history, but the moment will pass you soon, and that moment will never return. What you must do, you must do quickly.
3. America is practicing a false version of Christianity and paying a lip service to Christ. The American prevailing values of money, sex and power are contrary to the Christian values of faith, hope and love. Capitalism and Christianity do not go together because capitalism is driven mad by greed and love of money.
4. America needs to clean its house first before it can criticize other nations. America is facing huge debts and deficits because of fiscal irresponsibility. It is morally wrong to give tax breaks to the rich and powerful. American politics and system of government is corrupted by moneyed interests represented by lobbyists. Although America claims to be a democracy, but it is ruled and run by and for special interests. Thus democracy becomes hollow. The military-industrial complex has wasted taxpayers' money trillions of dollars. The government agencies exhibit a defective culture of self-serving. It is an ostrich's syndrome to think everything is rosy in America. America is no model for the world. America has a flawed legal system that enriches lawyers at the expense of justice and victims. American healthcare system is a blood-sucking machine that preys on captive customers and enriches doctors, hospital owners, drug and insurance companies exorbitantly.
5. There is something wrong with the foreign policy. Learn from Richard Nixon to seek a just and lasting peace, not world domination. The so-called National Missile Defense is an unrealistic, unreliable and unproductive system that could waste trillions of dollars and still does not protect American people.
6. America created the Taiwan problem back in 1949 by military intervention and prevented China's reunification. To right the wrong you should cancel the Taiwan Relations Act, stop selling weapons to Taiwan, halt any military and political posturing, and declare America would not defend Taiwan under any circumstances because America has no right to do so. It is unwise to become the enemy of 1.35 billion Chinese and do something that may lead to global nuclear holocaust!
7. The war against terrorists needs to be revamped in order to wipe them out from the face of the earth. You need to cooperate with China, Russia, and EU to do the job more effectively. Unilateralism spells utter disaster. No nation is strong enough to dominate the world.
8. "Righteousness exalts a nation, but sin is a disgrace to any people." (Proverbs 14:34)
"So then, each of us will be accountable to God." (Romans 14:12) Jesus Christ says, "If you keep my commandments, you will abide in my love, just as I have kept my Father's commandments and abide in His love." (John 15:10)
Sincerely,
Willie Wong
Chinese For China
http://member.muzi.com/wongwillie/
November 4, 2004
Posted by Federico Rampini at 8:57 PM