« The World Votes For John Kerry | Main | US Elections and the World »
November 14, 2004
U.S. Election Impact on India
Syndicated columnist Amulya Ganguli writes in the Kerala News on Nov. 5 about what a Bush victory means for India. Ganguli writes that Bush will be more lenient than Kerry on India's nuclear ambitions and the outsourcing of jobs. However, Bush will also likely continue a softer stance on Pakistan's violent struggle with India over Kashmir because Pakistan is a strong U.S. ally in the war on terror.
Ganguli writes that Bush and Kerry's position on terrorism fuels more anti-Americanism and Islamic terrorism. Perrenial Muslim-Hindu clashes in India are likley to continue.
Pros and cons of the Bush victory for India (COMMENTARY)
India ; Pros and cons of the Bush victory for India (COMMENTARY)
5-November-2004
India News, The positive side of George W. Bush's re-election for India is obvious. But that doesn't mean there aren't any negative aspects. To take the plus points first, New Delhi will not have to undertake the tedious task of explaining its policies to a new administration in Washington. It can simply continue to build on the understanding that is already there between the two capitals on a number of issues.
These include the menace of terrorism and, more important for India, an appreciation of New Delhi's position on Kashmir -- that a redrawing of the map on religious lines will be tantamount to playing into the hands of Islamic fundamentalists. In addition, India will expect the US to persist with its dual policy towards Pakistan even if New Delhi doesn't approve of it.
This policy comprises the tactic of overlooking the Pakistan establishment's reluctance to sever all links with jehadi outfits via the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) outfit and rogue elements in the army in return for an attitude of restraint in Kashmir and, of course, cooperation in the battle against the Al Qaeda. A Kerry administration might have wanted Islamabad to crack down harder on the militant organisations in Pakistan, thereby further inflaming the prevailing anti-American sentiments and fuelling bigotry and terrorism in Kashmir as a consequence.
A major reason why India benefits from a Bush White House is that the latter is more pragmatic than the more ideological Democrats who would have continued to chide India for having tested an atomic device and for the alleged violations of human rights in Kashmir.
In contrast, the Bush administration is likely to continue turning a blind eye to these supposed transgressions in western eyes presumably because it is aware of the possibility of India becoming a counterweight to China in Asia. It may be remembered that prior to 9/11, China was a major foreign policy concern for the US and that National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice was scheduled to deliver a speech on China and the missile defence shield on the morning of 9/11.
Apart from these advantages for India from a second Bush presidency in the field of diplomacy, New Delhi will be pleased that the controversy over the outsourcing of American jobs to India created by Kerry will be put to rest. In the WTO also, a pro-free trade Bush regime (at least in the formal sense) will be of help to India.
But even if India expects to feel more at ease with the sense of continuity which the re-election of Bush provides, it cannot be oblivious of the negative sides. First and foremost, his return will exacerbate the already volatile anti-American sentiments in the Muslim world, including Pakistan and Bangladesh. The resultant impetus to terrorism can affect India, although the present prime targets of the fundamentalists are America (and Americans wherever they are) and Israel and Jews.
Since there is little chance of an immediate improvement of the situation in Iraq or of a definitive forward movement on the Israeli-Palestinian issue, conditions in West Asia will verge on the explosive. Added to this will be the tension and uncertainty caused by Iran's now virtually open move towards the acquisition of nuclear weapons. Because of India's large Muslim population, it has to be extremely sensitive to any sharp deterioration of the situation in the region.
India will also have to be mindful that its traditional cordial relations with Iran and the Arab world, as well as the more recent improvement of its ties with Israel, are not undermined by the unpredictable developments in West Asia. So far, India has managed to tread carefully through the minefields of the region. But the implications of an election in Iraq whose legitimacy might be in doubt, or of the aftermath of a post-Yasser Arafat era, are yet to be carefully assessed.
In this context, the first Bush regime might not have made much of a fuss about India's refusal to send troops to Iraq. But it might not look kindly on a similar noncommittal Indian approach to the question of an 'elected' government in Baghdad since the US would like to showcase it as a sign of the success of its plans to bring democracy to the region.
Much will depend, therefore, on how ideologically driven the new team led by Bush will be. If it continues to be guided by the messianic neo-conservative concepts of pre-emptive strikes and unilateral action, there is bound to be much discomfiture in the decision-making chambers in New Delhi. While there is no question of a return to the virtual anti-American position of the non-alignment days, as the Indian communists would want, India cannot also go along wholeheartedly with policies which undermine the United Nations and denote a certain arrogant ruthlessness in dealing with international affairs.
India will have to tread a fine line, therefore, to balance the pros and cons of the new administration, a task made all the more difficult by the realisation that it is dealing with a hyperpower without a challenger in the world and with a presidency which is likely to regard its electoral success as a popular endorsement of its policies.
(Amulya Ganguli is a political analyst. He can be reached at amulyaganguli@yahoo.co.in)
Indo-Asian News Service
Posted by Ki-Min Sung at November 14, 2004 9:21 PM