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LOS ANGELES -- Incumbent Democrat Gray Davis claimed victory and a second term Tuesday night in the California gubernatorial race against Republican challenger Bill Simon. Updated Nov. 6, 1:17 am
With 70 percent of California precincts reporting, Davis declared himself the winner of the race. He had 47 percent of votes compared to Simon's 43 percent.
"I'm so proud of this state. We've been through two difficult years," Davis told supporters at the Century Plaza Hotel. "I look back with pride on all the things we've done together."
"We've made California the first state," the governor said, then ticked off a list of accomplishments, from signing gun control legislation to creation of new college scholarships.
Davis' victory speech was later in the evening than he had planned. Early returns showed Simon with a healthy lead, despite numerous campaign stumbles. In late polls, Davis led by seven points, but the final returns may be much closer.
The Davis campaign opened the political year with a barrage of negative television campaign advertisements aimed at Republican primary candidate Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan. The ads helped propel Simon to victory in the GOP primary in March.
Simon managed to return the favor several times over during the campaign. His pictures of Davis allegedly accepting campaign money in the Capitol turned out to be taken in a private home -- and not illegal after all. Simon's flip-flopping on gay issues irritated both liberals and conservatives, and a fraud verdict against his family's company -- though later reversed -- deflated his claim to be a trustworthy custodian of the state's flailing economy.
Thanks to all the help, Davis, a former assemblyman, state controller and lieutenant governor - who spent at least $51 million on his campaign against Simon -- pulled decisively ahead in the polls.
Voters were not particularly inspired, said Bruce Cain, director of the UC Berkeley's Institute of Government Studies. Cain said the combination of Davis' high-priced tactics and lack of voter enthusiasm made this election a "test case" on the effectiveness of big money campaigning. "The Democrats will reportedly spend five to one more money in the ground war against the Republicans," Cain said.
"Clearly they'll outspend us," admitted Darrel Ng, a Simon campaign spokesman.
Non-partisan polls - though not indicating a landslide victory for Davis -- projected since March the governor would win re-election. They also showed Democrats likely to maintain control of the 80-member Assembly, 40-member state Senate and the 53-member congressional delegation and statewide offices.
But even in the midst of a Democratic love-fest, polls showed Davis didn't manage to win his way into the hearts of Californians.
"Davis' popularity has been declining over a year," said Mark Baladassare, director of the Public Policy Institute of California Statewide Survey, prior to the election.
A September Field Poll found "preferences now being registered for both Davis and Simon are more votes against the opposing candidate than positive expressions of support for the man being heard."
Twelve million Davis dollars later, a Field Poll based on interviews conducted October 25 trough October 30, showed Davis maintaining a seven-point lead. But 32 percent of his supporters said their vote was more a vote against Simon. Sixty-seven percent of Simon's supporters said their vote was more of a vote against Davis. The poll had a 3.5 percent margin of error.
Roger Salazar, Davis' press secretary, pointed out Davis was preferred by Latino and women voters -- both are groups statistically more likely to vote than white men, who preferred Simon. "We're confident we'll get our people to the polls and see an overwhelming victory for Davis," Salazar said. Even so, Davis spent the days before the election in meetings with supporters to get out the vote.
When asked about his lead in the polls, at a meeting with black ministers at the Allen Temple Baptist Church in Oakland, Davis said, "I'm pleased that I'm ahead in the polls, but polls don't vote. One of the purposes of my meetings [this week] is to make sure that ministers pass that onto their congregations."