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BERKELEY -- Berkeley city politics, for more than ten years defined by progressive Democrats having a one-vote majority on the city council, is unlikely to change until non-voters are brought into the electoral process, according to political scientists.
When voting rates increase among the students and the poor, they argued, the city is likely to move in an even more progressive direction.
"Given the relationship between income and ideology among actual voters, you could make the inference that lower income non-voters would vote more progressive," said Jack Glaser, a statistics professor at UC Berkeley Goldman School of Public Policy.
And there are a lot of non-voters -- even in a city where its 60 percent turnout is considered good compared to 44 percent for the state and 50 percent for the country.
U.S. Census data shows that in West Berkeley's poorer neighborhoods and enclaves around the university, nearly two-thirds of the voting age population stays home on Election Day. Two years ago, more people in "the flats" failed to vote -- 2,838 -- than the number that elected City Councilwoman Margaret Breland to office -- 2,817.
Meanwhile, high above in the hills, more than 80 percent of the populace voted that same day, giving them more clout in citywide elections.
While Professor Glaser's prediction -- that non-voters would vote for more liberal candidates -- has not faced statistical testing, the recent actions of the mayoral candidates Shirley Dean and Tom Bates support the theory. Bates, the progressive candidate, has made voter registration a priority. For example, he sent representatives to help with a voter registration drive on UC Berkeley campus last month that signed up thousands of students, supporters said.
"We walked the streets to register new voters," said Bates' campaign worker Mal Bernstein.
Down the street at incumbent Mayor Dean's headquarters, campaign assistants for the more moderate candidate said voter registration was not "built into [the] plan."
"We didn't have the resources," said Dean's campaign manager Bryan Schwartz. "In a non-partisan election between two liberal candidates you don't know how they are going to vote."
Instead, the mayor concentrated on finding Dean supporters among registered voters, said campaign workers.
It is the non-voting population that could unsettle the status quo because the city's demographics, the other factor that generally changes voting trends, has remained fairly steady over the last 10 years.
A review of U.S. Census data from 1990 and 2000 shows that race, homeownership and age -- factors that experts said influence voting patterns -- have only shifted by one to two percentage points in a decade. Six out of 10 Berkeley residents are still white; almost six out of ten still own homes; and about two out of 10 voters are still young -- under the age of 24.
"Demographic imperative is as important as class," said UC Berkeley economics professor John Quigley. "Cycles of the population affect propensity to vote."
But the moderates on city council have an advantage because non-voters change their habits even more slowly than Berkeley's population is changing. Reaching the non-voters could be tough, especially residents like UC Berkeley student Miguel Reyna.
"I'm not registered," the 19-year-old said, "because I'm not into the whole voting thing, I guess."