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Voters who rejected the school voucher initiative said they had
enjoyed a good or excellent experience with the local public schools,
according to an exit poll by UC Berkeley students.
All but two
of the students conducted their polling in San Francisco, and all
of the students polled only those voters who had school-age children.
The students
polled 84 voters and of those, only 20 or 24 percent, voted in favor
of the ballot initiative. This tracked the statewide vote. With
69 percent of the precincts counted, 70 percent voted no and 30
percent voted in favor of the initiative.
The poll was
taken by students in a Freshman Seminar on the California initiative
process.
Voters in Chinatown
told the student pollsters that they had strong feelings about the
initiative and they had not relied on the media for their information.
"They said their decision was based on their own personal beliefs,"
said Jordan Bornstein.
While voters
in Chinatown overwhelmingly rejected the initiative, it garnered
its strongest support from Nob Hill voters whose children attend
private schools.
The poll reflected
what analysts said was one of the main reasons that unlike the bilingual
education initiative last year, Proposition 38, financed by venture
capitalist Tim Draper, failed to take off.
Voters want
to see improvement in the public schools, but are generally happy
with their local schools and don't associate vouchers with reform.
The vast majority, 70 percent, give their kids' schools As and Bs,
according to the 2000 Phi Delta Kappa/Gallup Poll of the Public's
Attitude Toward Public Schools.
In addition,
vouchers have a bad reputation. Less than four percent of Americans
see vouchers as an effective way to improve public schools, according
to this year's Gallup polls. And, more than 50 percent of Californians
think that passage of the voucher initiative will not help the public
school system or the students with the lowest test scores, according
to the findings of the Public Policy Institute of California, a
non-profit organization dedicated to the research of political and
social issues in the state.
Additionally,
with the economy booming, California residents have seen big changes
in the education system in recent years, including more funding,
improved bonuses for students and teachers, increased accountability
through tests and smaller class sizes. According to the student
poll, only 30 percent of those with kids in public schools think
they are getting worse.
"(Prop. 38) is a hard sell in the current state of California
because if we are seeing improvements. Why are we going decentralize
and risk whatever gains we have been making?" asked Huerta.
According to
the student poll, it was mainly parents of private school children
who disapprove of the public system, and 52 percent of them voted
for Prop. 38.
The other group
that could have supported it according to the Yes on Prop. 38 campaign
was inner-city Latinos and blacks. But, the majority of parents
with kids in inner-city schools don't vote, said Pam Riley, a political
scientist from the Pacific Research Institute.
Although the
Yes on Prop.38 campaign chose to make access to the voucher system
universal, it failed to ally with organizations such as the Catholic
Conference, which could have helped to build support among middle
to high income voters which are more likely to vote, added Riley.
The Catholic Church has 718 schools, which serve 254,000 of the
state's students.
Luis Huerta,
researcher of the Policy Analysis of California Education, a joint
effort between UC Berkeley and Stanford University, added that the
campaign might have received some valuable advice from Catholic
educators. "The Catholic Conference would have flat out just
told them that $4000 was not enough to run a school," he said.
To top it all,
Proposition 38 has a price tag. According to the Policy Analysis
of California Education, it would cost California residents at least
$2.6 billion dollars, a moderate figure when compared to the $3.3
billion estimate of the Legislative Analyst's Office. And so far,
there is no evidence that it would work since none of the other
existing vouchers programs in the country are based on the universal
access that Prop. 38 promises.
"It is
a more drastic measure than most people are comfortable with",
said Kim Rueben, education research fellow at the Public Policy
Institute of California.
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