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California
voters Tuesday elected a new state Legislature, which after millions
of dollars spent and months of nasty campaigning, retains its Democratic
majority for the once-a-decade task of drawing new district lines
for lawmakers.
Enjoying an unusual financial advantage, Democrats out-raised Republicans
two to one, assuring their dominance in both the state 40-member
Senate and 80-member Assembly.
Democrats have picked up one seat in the state Senate and four seats
in the Assembly, giving them a two-thirds majority in that chamber.
This enhanced Democratic muscle will come into play next year as
lawmakers undertake the decennial task of redrawing district lines
based upon the 2000 census.
Outnumbered as they are in the legislature, and with a Democrat
Gray Davis in the governor’s chair, Republicans have talked
about a plan that would put redistricting in the hands of a non-partisan
committee. A Republican-backed proposition slated for the March
2000 ballot would have done just that, but it was removed by the
state Supreme Court on the grounds that it violated the state constitution's
single-subject law by including a provision to raise lobbyist fees.
Campaign spending on this election has nearly broken records in
a state where legislative races already cost more than in most of
the nation. This is because of California’s no-limit state
campaign finance laws, the enormous size of districts and the high
cost of reaching voters.
According to Republican strategist Alan Hoffenblum, it can cost
a campaign anywhere between $50,000 to $100,000 for a single mailer,
perhaps the most effective way to reach voters.
Darry Sragow, campaign manager for Assembly Democrats, says that
big spending is critical, especially in major markets where name
recognition of politicians is hard to come by. He estimates that
Democrats could be spending anywhere between $15-$20 million this
year on Assembly races alone.
The biggest money for a single seat was spent in the close race
for state Senate district 7, which encompasses Contra Costa and
eastern Alameda Counties. The battle between Democrat Assemblyman
Tom Torlakson and the incumbent Republican Senator Richard Rainey
will have cost a combined total of more than $6 million. Torlakson
outraised Rainey by more than $1 million.
Torlakson, favored to win, pleased Democratic leaders by taking
the race by more than ten percentage point.
During the last two weeks, the Torlakson camp flooded mailboxes
with literature attacking Rainey's stand on gun control and abortion,
and touting endorsements from the California Organization of Police
and Sheriffs and Planned Parenthood. Meanwhile Rainey, who also
supports abortion rights, complemented his television ads with a
more grass-roots approach in the final days, walking precincts along
with volunteers to respond to what campaign manager Carl Fogliani
called "out-right lies" by the Torlakson camp. "We've
been outspent two to one, if not more" said Fogliani before
the election, "so we have to win this on the ground."
District 5, another competitive seat comprising parts of Sacramento,
Stockton and Tracy, has proven to be a tough battle. With 96% of
precincts reporting Assemblyman Michael Machado-D held a narrow
lead over Republican Alan Nakanishi. Democratic registration has
been slipping in the district, dropping from an 11 percent point
advantage in 1994 to a 2 percent point advantage in 1999, and Republicans
had hoped capitalize on the momentum. Each candidate has raised
over $1 million, and late contribution reports show that Nakanishi
collected more than $311,000 since October 21, indicating a vote
of confidence from Republicans.
Four other closely watched Senate races took place in Southern California.
In the 21st District, Democratic Assemblyman Jack Scott raised over
$1 million dollars in his fight against Republican Paul Zee. The
seat is being vacated by Democrat Adam Schiff, who is expected to
beat GOP Representative James Rogan in a contentious U.S. congressional
race in the Pasadena-Glendale area.
Assemblyman Scott has proved victorious, beating Zee by thirty percentage
points with 83% of precincts reported. His win was helped in part
by a pendulum swing to the left in this formerly Republican region,
evident over the last couple of years.
In Long Beach, Republican Marilyn Lyon has raised more money than
any other opponent to go up against incumbent Democrat Betty Karnette
for the 27th District, and Democrats have taken notice. However,
with voter registration 12 percent points higher for Democrats than
Republicans, Karnette has held the seat, wining easily with over
60% of the vote.
In San Diego, Democrats are celebrating another victory in a race
that was closer than party leaders had hoped. Prior to this summer’s
energy crisis, incumbent Democrat Deirdre Alpert had it locked.
But Republican challenger Larry Stirling has made political headway,
thanks to Alpert’s vote for the unpopular 1996 law deregulating
the electricity industry. But ultimately Alpert pulled ahead, winning
56.4% of the vote to Stirling’s 39.3%.
One competitive race Republicans may still win is the 29th district
of West Covina. . Republican Bob Margett has a slight edge over
opponent Democratic Richard Melendez with 63 precincts yet to report.
Voter registration is even between Republicans and Democrats, the
Republican party will has battled to hold the seat vacated by Republican
Richard Mountjoy.
Meanwhile in the Assembly, a number of the high-stakes, high-cost
races were fought in Southern California. Democrat Dario Frommer
and Republican Craig Missakian are expected to have spent over $1
million each, battling for Scott’s vacated 43rd Assembly seat.
With over three-quarters of votes recorded, results show that Frommer
will easily take the seat.
According to Sragow, Missakian was an early favorite, thanks in
part to his Armenian heritage that appeals to the large community
in Glendale. But the Latino population is estimated to be two to
three times larger than the Armenian community, and Frommer, who
is Latino, will hold the seat for Democrats.
In the 54th Assembly district, Democratic incumbent Alan Lowenthal
beat Republican Rudy Vorinich in a competition that Sragow described
as "a real dogfight". Lowenthal easily took the race by
a two digit margin. The district stretches from middle class Long
Beach to the million dollar estates that make up Palos Verdes. Registration
is 7 percent points higher for Democrats within the district; however,
Republicans typically have a higher turnout come Election Day. Both
candidates are expected to have spent close to $1 million dollars.
In nearby Cerritos, Republican Mayor Grace Hu was unsuccessful in
her attempt to capitalize on the growing conservatism within the
strongly Democratic 56th Assembly district. Hu lost her struggle
against incumbent Democrat Sally Havice, ending Republican hopes
to take the largely Latino district.
In the conservative stronghold of Ventura County, Republican Incumbent
Tony Strickland has a small lead over Democrat Roz McGrath for the
37th district seat. The race was expected to be close. When the
two competed for the seat in 1998, ultra-conservative Strickland
beat McGrath by less that 500 votes. History may be repeating itself,
as Strickland is up by just over one percentage point with 27 precincts
still to report.
The 44th District of La Canada-Flintridge proved an easy win for
Democrat Carol Liu. Her opponent was Republican Susan Carpenter-McMillan,
a public relations consultant who handled publicity for Paula Jones
during her sexual harassment suit against President Clinton. This
is a traditionally Democratic seat, although it is growing more
conservative. Even so, after all the votes are counted Liu is expected
to win the race by almost 30 percentage points.
Eastern San Bernardino County is home to the 61st district, where
Democrats pitted Gloria McLeod against Republican Dennis Yates.
McLeod has taken the race, 53.8% to Yates’ 43.2% with all but
five precincts yet to report. With money coming in for Yates from
the insurance, dairy, trucking and real estate industries, Republicans
were hoping to capture the currently vacant seat. But Democratic
registration has enjoyed a recent boost by an influx of middle-class
Latinos moving to the region from Los Angeles, and according to
Sragow, Republicans stepped back their efforts in the final days.
Northern California also holds its share of contested Assembly races.
Republicans fought a hard, but unsuccessful fight to gain District
17, comprising parts of Tracy and Stockton, where Democratic registration
has been slipping in recent years. Both contenders, Democrat Barbara
Matthews and Republican Greg Aghazarian are expected to spend more
than $2 million dollars for the seat. In the end, Matthews won 53%
to Aghazarian’s 44.6%.
The 28th District in the Salinas Valley has proved to be an anomaly
for Democrats. Despite holding a large majority of registered voters,
the seat has been held by Republicans for the past three elections.
But this year, it appears Democrats have taken the seat back with
Simon Salinas winning over Republican Jeffery Denham in a close
race. Though heavily outspent, Denham was hoping to benefit from
the popularity of former Assemblyman Peter Frusetta in his bid to
hold the district.
In such an expensive election year, third party and independent
candidates faced a particularly difficult battle. Such was the case
for incumbent Assemblywoman Audie Bock, an Independent running against
Democrat Wilma Chan in the 16th Assembly district of Alameda and
Oakland. Democrats were determined to win back the seat they lost
to Bock two years ago when she ran as a Green candidate. Leaving
nothing to chance, Chan reported raising more than $2 million during
the last year, while Bock’s numbers run under six figures.
Adamant about not suffering another high-profile and embarrassing
loss, Democrats pulled out all the stops to take back this seat.
Chan dominated over Bock, taking almost 70% of the vote.
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