|
For San Francisco Mayor Willie Brown, Tuesday November 7 was the
day he began writing the eulogy on the six-member voting bloc the
mayor had amassed on the 11-member Board of Supervisors.
Of 11 newly reassigned districts, eight or nine will see runoff
elections on Tuesday, December 12 to determine their new representatives
on the board.
The only candidates not facing runoffs are Brown’s nemesis,
Board President Tom Ammiano, who collected two-thirds of the vote
in District 9, and Brown-backed incumbent Gavin Newsom, who ran
unopposed in District 2. Mark Leno in District 8 is a few votes
away from the 50 percent majority needed to avoid a runoff.
If everyone who is currently leading goes on to win their district
election, Brown will see five of the candidates he supports elected:
Newsom, incumbents Michael Yaki, Mabel Teng and Leno, and newcomer
Linda Richardson.
Ammiano, an openly gay part-time stand-up comedian, will likely
see four candidates he backed elected: himself, newcomers Aaron
Peskin and Matt Gonzalez, and incumbent Leland Yee.
Two independents, Gerardo Sandoval in District 11 and Chris Daly
in District 6, are the frontrunners in their races.
Come January, the final tally will most likely be Brown--5, Ammiano--4,
and independents--2.
However, according to Wade Crowfoot, project director with David
Binder Research, Newsom and Leno have become "increasingly
independent from the mayor." DBR does political polling and
focus groups.
Sandoval is a voting tossup. His website says he wants more dot-coms
in his district (District 11, the Excelsior and Outer Mission) but
less parking congestion.
Asked if he will support Brown or Ammiano, Sandoval said in a phone
conversation, "I have nothing to do with that. The district
out here is working class and wants basic city services."
Daly is a liberal tenants’ activist, and Brown will hardly
be able to count on him as an ally.
Still, Brown is backing three strong challengers in Districts 5,
6 and 11.
"It’s highly possible that the mayor won’t have a
majority on the board," said Crowfoot Ultimately, Crowfoot
said, it is a matter of who shows up December 12 which will decide
the outcome.
"It’s definitely a voter turnout issue," Crowfoot
said.
At a public policy forum meeting at the San Francisco Chamber of
Commerce Thursday, Crowfoot pointed out four factors that helped
sway the election against Brown:
• Independents and progressives
• Grassroots organizing
• Neighborhood
politics
• The San
Francisco Bay Guardian, the liberal free weekly paper that offered
a handy tear-out front-page endorsement guide the week of the elections
Seven candidates the Bay Guardian supported made it to the runoffs.
"It shows the power of the Bay Guardian," said Crowfoot.
San Francisco is traditionally a liberal city. According to exit
polls done by CAVEC—Chinese-American Voters Education Committee—San
Franciscans cast 75 percent of their votes for Gore, 10 percent
for Nader, and 15 percent for Bush. This year, with the displacement
of artists and musicians and the oft-touted "dot-com invasion"
driving up housing prices, the liberal vote affected not only the
presidential vote but the make-up on the board, as well.
A big loser, according to Crowfoot, was corporate campaign backing.
In District 11, over $115,000 in financial backing from friends
of Willie Brown and Willie’s political support still couldn’t
help incumbent Amos Brown, who will have to come from behind to
beat challenger Sandoval in the runoff.
Before the election, Amos Brown moved to District 11, which did
not have an incumbent running, from District 7, where Mabel Teng
lived. Teng came in first in that district.
With $70,000 in backing, Brown-supported Juanita Owens came in a
distant second to Ammiano- and Bay Guardian-backed Matt Gonzalez
in District 5, the South of Market, Haight/Ashbury and Tenderloin
areas, a public defender who has a poetry page on his campaign website.
Crowfoot expects the leaders in the runoff (see
chart) to win, but he says to expect money to be pumped into
any campaign where a "friend of Willie" is running.
|
