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About the J-School

By Matthew MacLean

Democrats lost their best chance in six years to retake the House of Representatives, but picked up at least three new seats in the Senate.

Needing a net gain of seven seats to win a majority in the House, Democrats had only gained one extra seat early Wednesday morning, with 19 races still undecided.

If Democrats win two remaining Senate battles that were still too close to call, splitting the Senate 50-50, they will still be one vote shy of controlling the Senate.

In the event of a win in the presidential race by George W. Bush, Vice-President Dick Cheney would cast tie-breaking Senate votes. But should Al Gore and Joseph Lieberman prevail, it is presumed Connecticutt's Republican governor would appoint a Republican to fill Lieberman's Senate seat. This would ruin the Democrats' split, making the count 51-49.

The results of the presidential race were still undetermined early Wednesday morning because of a virtual tie in the race in Florida. Results will not be final until a recount is made.

In a night full of close contests, the two remaining Senate contests have likewise continued down to the wire, with less than 40,000 votes separating incumbent Republican Spence Abraham and Democrat Debbie Stabenow in Michigan, and just over 1,000 separating Republican incumbent Slate Gorton and Democrat Maria Cantwell in Washington.

Television networks had called Cantwell the winner of the Washington race earlier in the evening, but as the count narrowed Gorton refused to capitulate and the race reverted to a toss-up. Washington state officials finally announced a recount would be required, with results to be announced on Nov. 18.

In all Democrats were successful in unseating at least three Senate Republicans, including Finance Committee Chairman William Roth of Delaware. Republicans took just one seat, with George Allen defeating Charles Robb in Virginia.

With 19 races still undecided, Democrats had only secured one extra seat in the House, but were still poised to fare well in California, winning four of five toss-up races and leading the fifth.

In the Silicon Valley, Democrat Mike Honda handily defeated Republican and fellow assemblyman Jim Cunneen to take the seat vacated by Republican Tom Campbell.

In the Central Valley's 20th congressional district, incumbent Democrat Cal Dooley withstood a strong challenge by Republican Rich Rodrigues, winning 52-46 percentage points. But in San Diego, with 99 percent of votes counted, incumbent Brian Bilbray was headed for defeat, trailing by 3 percentage points to Democratic challenger Susan Davis.

Likewise, incumbent Republican Jim Rogan finally fell to Democrat Alan Schiff, 45-53, in the most expensive campaign in House history.

In Southwest Los Angeles, incumbent Republican Steve Kuykendall appeared to be losing his seat to former Democratic Congresswoman Jane Harman by a margin of six percentage points. But 38 percent of polling stations had not yet reported.

"A close presidential race makes things closer all around," said Democratic pollster David Binder. "People will think their vote counts more and higher turn-out can make the difference in this year's congressional races."

Going into the election, the House was divided by the narrowest margin since 1945. Republicans were trying to hold the high ground with 223 seats. From a majority of 230-204 in 1994, the erosion of GOP seats had been steady-nine lost in 1996, five more in 1998.

That margin was so close that House minority leader Dick Gephardt of Missouri reportedly turned down a chance last summer to be Al Gore's running mate because he thought he had a good chance of becoming speaker in the new Congress.

Picking up seats was supposed to be easier this year for Democrats, since Republicans had to defend 26 seats where incumbents are retiring compared to the Democrats' nine. The closest contests were mostly over seats currently filled by Republicans.

Democrats also thought they would benefit from a fund-raising windfall. Out of a record-breaking $212 million raised among both parties for House races this year, Democrats held a $15 million cash-on-hand advantage going into the general election stretch this summer. The advantage was significant, considering that Republicans usually out-fund Democrats by a wide margin.

"We're not going to lose a single seat for lack of money," Patrick Kennedy, chairman of the Democratic House Committee, repeatedly told reporters.

A large share of that money went to the Rogan-Schiff race, where the candidates were together projected to spend over $11 million-more than most Senate races, and far more than the previous record of $8 million for a House race, spent by Newt Gingrich and his opponent in 1996.

The race was close and therefore valuable to both parties, but it was also personal. Rogan was one of the 13 House Republicans who served as prosecutors at President Clinton's Senate impeachment trial, quite a political risk considering that his district-the northern Los Angeles area, including Glendale, Pasadena and Burbank-has been trending Democratic in a big way over the past decade. Politically active Hollywood celebrities waged a high-profile campaign to punish him for his impeachment role.

In San Diego, where neither party has been able to enlist more than 40 percent of registered voters, Republican incumbent Brian Bilbray and Democratic challenger Susan Davis both seemed anxious to distance themselves from their parties while portraying each other as the more extreme candidate. Bilbray, an avid surfer known to occasionally spout Hare Krishna philosophy, is a pro-choice, pro-environment and anti-gun sort of Republican. Davis, who was endorsed by Emily's List, is a termed-out assembly member with solid roots in the district. For a time it appeared that her vote to deregulate California's energy industry might come back to haunt her.

Local electricity bills this year nearly doubled overnight due to what may have been price gouging by deregulated utility companies. Bilbray was quick to highlight Davis' role in the debacle, though he too (along with California's entire congressional delegation) had supported deregulation from Washington.

But Davis' recent efforts at curbing the crisis may have redeemed her in the minds of voters. As the issue receded, Davis made gains in the polls and held the upward momentum through the election.

Another district evenly divided along party lines is that of incumbent Republican Steven Kuykendall. A moderate who matches the political character of the Long Beach-Torrance constituency and is well-positioned to bring home federal defense projects with a post on the House Armed Services Committee, Kuykendall nevertheless faced a stiff challenge from moderate Democrat Jane Harman.

Harman once had Kuykendall's job, and even the same post on the Armed Services Committee, before leaving to make an ill-fated attempt at the California governorship in 1998. But she says she never abandoned the district, and until recently she and Kuykendall were tied in the polls. He has pulled slightly ahead according to even Democratic political strategists. Issues in the race have been reflective of those debated nationally: social security reform, health care and education. With few ideological differences, the campaign remained civil on both sides until mid-October.

Seeing the close race as pivotal to the future of the House, both parties began to buy up air time for ads more sharply critical of their foes. The AFL-CIO sponsored ads attacking Kuykendall for rejecting a prescription drug plan, and the GOP called in Sen. John McCain and Elizabeth Dole for Kuykendall. Democratic Vice Presidential candidate Joseph Lieberman and President Clinton weighed in for Harman.

The Silicon Valley's youth and wealth have created a melting pot for liberal values and Conservative fiscal policy, an ideal base for Republican Tom Campbell, who had occupied California's 15th district since 1996. But Campbell decided to challenge Democrat Dianne Feinstein for the U. S. Senate this year, leaving his seat open for a tough contest between two popular assemblymen. Though Democrats outnumber Republicans by a significant margin in the district, Republican Jim Cunneen was able to stay neck and neck with Democrat Mike Honda for most of the race by pledging to nurture high-tech business interests.

The Central Valley's 20th congressional district has been the seemingly impenetrable realm of veteran Democrat Cal Dooley since 1990. But this year it too attracted national attention, as Republicans believed they had finally found a serious challenger in locally well-known television anchorman Rich Rodriguez.

Beyond his star power and his potential to attract the area's large population of Latino farm workers, Rodriguez won the coveted endorsement of the California Farm Bureau, and against all expectations he managed to keep the race tight before finally bowing to Dooley with a 53-46 percent loss.