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The workings
of the Electoral College can produce unexpected results.
Since 1888,
the candidate with the most votes has won the presidency. But this
year's tight contest has poll watchers wondering whether-for the
third time in the country's history-the count of the 535-member
Electoral College will count more than the popular vote.
In 1824, war hero Andrew Jackson won more of the popular vote than
John Quincy Adams, but Adams was more popular in the right states.
The same thing happened in 1876 when Rutherford B. Hayes was chosen
over the more popular Samuel Tilden, and again in 1888 when Benjamin
Harrison got the nod over Grover Cleveland.
Electoral College math works like this: each state is given a number
of electoral votes equal to the number of representatives they have
in Congress. California, for example, has 54 electoral votes (52
members in the House of Representatives plus 2 Senators). All these
54 votes go to the candidate
who wins the most votes-no matter how slim the victory.
Since more populous states have more representatives in the House,
they carry more weight in the Electoral College, and a vote for
either candidate is actually a vote for a slate of electors chosen
beforehand by each party.
The Electoral College is a winner take all system in all but Nebraska
and Maine where electoral votes are divvied up proportionally, in
accordance with the popular vote.
A typical scenario for this year's election has Bush winning big,
very big, in the south, especially in his home state of Texas. This
outcome would give Bush Texas' 32 electoral votes, on a popular
vote of say
800,000 to 200,000 in favor of the Texas Governor.
Say the race is tighter in the Democratic stronghold of California,
where the popular vote is split 600,000 to 400,000 in favor of Gore.
This gives Gore more electoral votes, but between Texas and California,
Bush was in fact more popular.
Do the math for 48 more states and it becomes clear how a candidate
can win the raw vote, but not the electoral vote.
The magic number is 270, the number of electoral votes needed to
win in a two-man race. Many states, such as Texas and California,
are considered decided, thus the real fight is over the undecided
voters in the "battleground" states.
In this election,
those states include Florida, with 25 votes; Pennsylvania, with
23; Michigan, with 18; and Washington, with eleven.
A tie of 269
votes is a possibility, but a very remote one. In that case, the
House of Representatives would choose the President, while the Senate
would choose the Vice President. With Republicans controlling both
houses of Congress, Bush would likely become the next President,
but this has yet to happen. Thomas Jefferson and Aaron Burr tied
in the electoral college in 1800, the last time the electors split
down the middle.
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