Tina Qian, Visiting Scholar ‘06

China’s rapid economic growth over the last two decades has invited widespread acclamation as well as speculation. Not only China itself but also global nations now seem to believe that a revitalized China has risen to be one of the major powers on the world stage.

This kind of optimistic sentiment reached a climax when the official China Central Television broadcast in November a 12-episode documentary named ‘The Rise of Great Powers.” Its purpose was to teach China and its people how to learn from the experiences of those has-been giants in the world.

But while applauding the achievements China has made so far, we should also not neglect the underlying cost, what has been paid already and what is still to be paid in the near future.

Most notable among these costs the rapidly degraded environment with its accompanying public health threats. Also we should notice how unbalanced the development has been both regionally and individually, and understand that the gap will probably continue to intensify given China’s undemocratic political system and unsustainable model of development.

‘China is growing very rapidly,’ China scholar Kenneth Lieberthal commented on a recent CBS program, ‘but it is in many ways walking a tightrope.’ Behind the attractive statistics heralding growth, various social tensions and conflicts are fermenting and accumulating.

The increasing unrest makes China’s future hold great uncertainties domestically and also internationally. Moreover, without taking concrete steps toward political reform, China can hardly be expected to run at today’s pace for another two decades.

Apart from its economic boom, China’s surging military spending and its soaring aid and investment in Asia, Africa and other corners of the world offer evidence of its increasing ‘soft power’ and bolster the image of a rising superpower. But politicians’ ambitions, in a totalitarian country, often fail to translate into a happy life for ordinary citizens.

In the late 1950s, Chairman Mao Zedong boldly designed an ambitious superpower ‘rising’ blueprint with the plan to overtake Britain in fifteen years. How could his goal be realized? Squeeze ordinary people’s basic livelihood, including their grain supply, to the maximum extent in order to boost military growth and foreign aid. What was the result? No less than 20 million Chinese people lost their lives to starvation and the effects of malnutrition.

Today, China remains a developing country, lagging far behind more economically developed nations in many indicators. China’s per capita GDP in 2005 is $1,700, compared to the United States’ $41,600, and China ranks 81 out of the total 177 in the UNDP’s Human Development Index.

But China’s state-owned CCTV has the full capacity to paint a rosy picture for its audiences and make its voice the loudest among many other different opinions. As BBC bluntly pointed out, the CCTV documentary series is trying to prepare the Chinese people psychologically to face up to China’s rise. It’s no coincidence that nationalism sees its robust growth during this very period.

The recent documentary series depicting great powers of the past, notes BBC, emphasized historical themes that coincide with current policies promoted at home. Social stability, industrial investment, peaceful foreign relations and national unity, for example, were presented as more vital than, say, military strength, political liberalization or the rule of law.

With the Seventeenth Party Congress soon to convene next spring, President Hu Jintao badly needs achievements in his post to consolidate the legitimacy of the CCP, which two decades ago began discreetly shifting its emphasis from ideology to economic boom and tangible benefits. It’s fairly reasonable to assume that CCTV, as the government’s mouthpiece, received inspiration from the authorities to release the documentary on previous global powers right at this point, when it could serve as a catalyst for the harmonious, upbeat atmosphere senior leaders want everyone to feel.

Foreign media have recently joined the chorus of commentary on China’s progress to sound their long-lasting ‘China threat’ tone. Just days ago The New York Times described China as a shy giant shedding its false modesty. The London-based Financial Times claimed that Chinese are poised to climb into the ranks of the world’s richest individuals. One FT columnist argued that China and India are the only real Brics in the wall, discounting Brazil and Russia’s economic potential.

China is certainly a giant power in terms of its 1.3 billion population and vast land area spreading across East Asia. It appears to have a promising future, but it still has a long way to go. Any attempt to simplify a conclusion suggests a lack of sophistication and comprehension, and will result in overly optimistic or even stupid predictions.

Media coverage within China and outside can help explain the world we share. But we should not forget to distinguish the culturally and politically constructed world from a more realistic one.